Theoryhammer - Combat performance - Beta .6 NEW!

How to beat those cowardly High Elves?

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Daeron
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Theoryhammer - Combat performance - Beta .6 NEW!

Post by Daeron »

Greetings,

I'm still working on new features and improving looks, but the tool should be ready for public testing and fiddling.
Enjoy.
http://warhammer.orderoftheathanor.eu/C ... DE_V6.html

A preview:

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Initial observations:
- COK's score the highest scores overall, in chance to yield a wound per attack. What "kills" them on the chart, is that they produce few attacks by comparison. I have not yet included the performance of the cold ones themselves, so they may improve still.


Personal conclusions based on these results:
- The COKs deliver good, high quality attacks, but no match for a large unit. Their strength lies in few attacks, not death by numbers
- Black Guards proved better than expected. There could still be a use for them, though they are far from needed, and may struggle to compete with a combination of specialized troops.
- The Sisters of Slaughter are disappointing. I'll be triple checking my results on them, just to be sure if they truly are so disappointing. The requirements needed for them to outscore others is hard to get. This may require further investigation. Chances are they are our best match against high strength troops, but the problem is the rule is triggered on strength -before weapon modifiers-.


Features that will be implemented
- Frost Phoenix Aura
- Option to add or remove the command group from a unit
- Option to choose the width and depth of a unit
- Option to add a magical banner to a unit
- Option to add multiple instances of the same unit, so that they can be compared with different setups
- Option to sort results by performance
- One-click to add a default set (all cavalry, all monsters, all infantry)
- the ability to save and link to a comparison

Features, currently on hold.
- Extend the calculator to support HE troops.


Sincerely,
Daeron
I love me a bowl of numbers to crunch for breakfast. If you need anything theoryhammered, I gladly take requests.

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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by HERO »

Good stuff, can you implement stuff like width of formations? Horde is nice and all, but not many players do it. Is it possible to do 7x4 or something?

And I'm assuming full command with all of these yeah?
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by T.D. »

Thanks Daeron,

Looks like a lot of work has gone into it!

My brain switches off when I see numbers, so would appreciate of a summary of important findings "for the layman".
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Daeron
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by Daeron »

- Command group hasn't been taking into account... yet. That is on the list of features to come.
- Formations will become more flexible in the future

I will be making a summary when the tool is finished T.D. :)
I love me a bowl of numbers to crunch for breakfast. If you need anything theoryhammered, I gladly take requests.

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"I move unseen. I hide in light and shadow. I move faster than a bird. No plate of armour ever stopped me. I strike recruits and veterans with equal ease. And all shiver at my coldest of whispers."
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by HERO »

Things that matter:

Vs. Empire Halberds
Black Guard (36) > Witches (36) > Executioners (27) > Sisters (27)

Vs. High Elves Spearmen
Black Guard (32) > Executioners (30) > Witches (29) > Sisters (23)

Vs. Saurus Warriors HW/Shield
Executioners (24) > Black Guard (21) = Sisters (21) > Witches (19)

Vs. Chaos Warriors Halberds
Executioners (23) > Black Guard (21) = Sisters (21) = Witches (21)

Vs. Plaguebearers (without -1 to hit)
Witch Elves (21) > Sisters (19) = Exectioners (19) > Black Guard (18)

Vs. Mournfang Cavalry
Executioners (20) > Black Guard (14) > Witch Elves (10) > Sisters (11)

Vs. Demigrpyh Cavalry
Executioners (20) > Witch Elves (11) > Sisters (11) > Black Guard (10)

10x3 Executioners = 370 with Champ
10x3 Witch Elves = 340 with Champ
10x3 Black Guard = 460 with Champ
10x3 Sisters = 460 with Champ

Considering that Executioners and Witch Elves scored the highest in several categories and are our cheapest options, they win in terms of overall cost effectiveness. With Witch Elves completely dominating the T5 5+ Ward vs. Nurgle PBs compared to Black Guard.
Last edited by HERO on Fri Oct 11, 2013 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by Daeron »

I'll see if I can add the -1 modifier from the nurgle things soon.
I love me a bowl of numbers to crunch for breakfast. If you need anything theoryhammered, I gladly take requests.

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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by HERO »

Vs. Phoenix Guard
Executioners (19) = Black Gard (19) = Sisters (19) > Witch Elves (18)

Vs. White Lions
Sisters (30) > Black Guard (29) = Executioners (29) = Witch Elves (29)

Which means that Witch Elves single-handily are the most cost effective unit vs. High Elf elites.
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by Daeron »

The minus hit modifier for nurgle is now added.
I love me a bowl of numbers to crunch for breakfast. If you need anything theoryhammered, I gladly take requests.

Furnace of Arcana, a warhammer blog with delusional grandeur.

"I move unseen. I hide in light and shadow. I move faster than a bird. No plate of armour ever stopped me. I strike recruits and veterans with equal ease. And all shiver at my coldest of whispers."
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by HERO »

Daeron wrote:The minus hit modifier for nurgle is now added.


Don't see it :<
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by Daeron »

HERO,
- My last update fixed a bug with the "red number" calculation. It was 1 too high. You need to reload the page to benefit from the update.
- You need to reload the page for the -1 hit modifier.
- The "red" number is the limit of what you can reach. You have less than 0.3% chance to "go above it" (something like.. once per year if you play a serious amount of games). More realistic is to look at the blue and green number. That is the interval of most likely outcomes.
I love me a bowl of numbers to crunch for breakfast. If you need anything theoryhammered, I gladly take requests.

Furnace of Arcana, a warhammer blog with delusional grandeur.

"I move unseen. I hide in light and shadow. I move faster than a bird. No plate of armour ever stopped me. I strike recruits and veterans with equal ease. And all shiver at my coldest of whispers."
- The stiff breeze
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by Gerner »

This is friggin brilliant work!
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by HERO »

Daeron wrote:HERO,
- My last update fixed a bug with the "red number" calculation. It was 1 too high. You need to reload the page to benefit from the update.
- You need to reload the page for the -1 hit modifier.
- The "red" number is the limit of what you can reach. You have less than 0.3% chance to "go above it" (something like.. once per year if you play a serious amount of games). More realistic is to look at the blue and green number. That is the interval of most likely outcomes.


Vs. Plaguebearers
Witch Elves (20) > Sisters (17) > Exectioners (15) > Black Guard (15)
Last edited by HERO on Fri Oct 11, 2013 11:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by Amarel »

Interesting to see that Sisters really pull ahead when facing Chaos Warriors with Light Armour and Shield... ....

Can't help but feel that they needed Armour Piercing to have a niche (against actual Chaos Warriors :)).
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by Dalamar »

Fantastic! I tried to count up a Frostie but there's no option for the frost aura (which would take away re-rolls and reduce strength, boosting Sister's effectiveness in comparison)
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by Daeron »

I'll add it on the "todo" list :)

Amarel: keep in mind their ward save. I looks like they made it difficult to use the unit well, perhaps too difficult. But if the ward comes into play, it will certainly prove an effective unit. A 4+ Ward in CC isn't exactly a welcome sight to troops that invest in a heavy attack.
I love me a bowl of numbers to crunch for breakfast. If you need anything theoryhammered, I gladly take requests.

Furnace of Arcana, a warhammer blog with delusional grandeur.

"I move unseen. I hide in light and shadow. I move faster than a bird. No plate of armour ever stopped me. I strike recruits and veterans with equal ease. And all shiver at my coldest of whispers."
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by Dalamar »

Pretty much, the chart tells you how much they'll kill, but not how many will die in return. I think this is where sisters pull ahead.
7th edition army book:
Games Played: 213
Games Won: 114 (54%)
Games Drawn: 33 (15%)
Games Lost: 66 (31%)

8th Edition army book W/D/L:
Druchii: 36/4/16
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by harshey »

You have to like how tight the band is for cold ones on the charge. Against t3/4 troops, almost every attack converts into an unsaved wound (provided their armor) is 4+ or worse. The mounts will add a few wounds too.
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by Trax »

Well, obviously Daeron needs to put in the enemy's counterattack, if we want to compare all choices accordingly :P

While this is a joke (not!), your work is more than appreciated, as usual, many thanks.

edit:
Ah, one thing: Could you maybe adjust the coloring for the different type of reports? Black on dark grey doesn't go to well, thanks!
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by MichaelMac »

I agree with whoever in the thread said that you should compare points cost per wound achieved as the ultimate output. That is the most important metric. However, you have to account for how many wounds you also receive in that combat and take the delta between what you paid to what you gain. For example Witch Elves may be amazing for their damage potential but that is balanced by the fast that they are made of paper. Sure, they might do 14 wounds to a block of Saurus, but the Saurus will do a lot back with thier other 15 models remaining.
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by Calisson »

Brilliant work, even better than the already high expectations I had from Daeron.
Wish the effects of frenzy were added.
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by Killerk »

:shock: AWESOME job !!!!

@HERO WE were always our most cost effective unit ;).
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by Ilderoth »

Very interesting to read all of this! And very useful for figuring out what units are optimal for fighting what other units. I have a question for HERO, however, because maybe its just me but I do not understand the numbers you are awarding our DE units in specific match-ups. For instance, you write:

Vs. Demigrpyh Cavalry
Executioners (20) > Witch Elves (11) > Sisters (11) > Black Guard (10)

What do 20, 11 and 10 stand for? It cannot be wounds, no way. According to my calculations - as well as those made with the help of Daeron's extremely helpful tool! - you will, on average, score 9,72 kills with a horde of 30 executioners. So, what am I missing here? (I am just trying to figure things out here, and I certainly do appreciate your effort!)
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by Zarycks »

First thanks for this awesome tool, much appreciated

Do you have any plans to include the Cold one attacks into the knight entry ?

and to make an entry for warlocks, really curious to see how good those guy actually are in CC
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by Dragon9 »

Very nice! Although my one quibble with it is that, obviously, the value of a troop choice isn't always in how much it can kill. For example, a unit of SoS is just as valuable as a flanker to remove the rank bonus (and SiN from Skaven!) to help a unit break the enemy and run them down. Granted, I understand that this type of theoryhammer can't take such things into account. :)
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Re: Theoryhammer - Combat performance of DE troops - Beta .4

Post by Dark knight »

Ilderoth wrote:Very interesting to read all of this! And very useful for figuring out what units are optimal for fighting what other units. I have a question for HERO, however, because maybe its just me but I do not understand the numbers you are awarding our DE units in specific match-ups. For instance, you write:

Vs. Demigrpyh Cavalry
Executioners (20) > Witch Elves (11) > Sisters (11) > Black Guard (10)

What do 20, 11 and 10 stand for? It cannot be wounds, no way. According to my calculations - as well as those made with the help of Daeron's extremely helpful tool! - you will, on average, score 9,72 kills with a horde of 30 executioners. So, what am I missing here? (I am just trying to figure things out here, and I certainly do appreciate your effort!)


Are you sure you used the correct values for Demigryph Cavalry? Those are indeed the wounds done on the unit.

I get the following numbers with Demigryph stats:
Executioners (7/12/17) > Witch Elves (2/5/10) > Black Guard > (2/5/9)

Very interesting tool, much appreciated. Thanks! :)

EDIT:
The different numbers are explained under the results
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