RXB Multiple Shot Rule - Any reason to not use it?

[Masamune]

Can anyone think of a situation where you'd elect to not use the multiple shot rule (ie. fire just a single shot instead of two shots at -1)? Worst case scenario it statistically results in as many hits as the single shot option. So is there a situation where you would not want to do more damage to the enemy? If so, what is it?

[Red...]

Moving and shooting at long range at a unit that for some reason reduces your to hit roll by a further -1.

E.g.:

BS4 = 3s to hit
+ Multishooting = 4s to hit
+ Long range = 5s to hit
+ Moving and shooting = 6s to hit


Add on any of the following:
- Enemy skirmishers: -1 to hit
- In soft cover: -1 to hit
- Mark of Nurgle on target: -1 to hit
- Behind screening unit: -2 to hit
- In hard cover: -2 to hit
etc

And you're hitting on 6s then 4s or 6s then 5s. In such cases, going with single shotting can be a more appealing choice.

Granted, statiscally it's the same odds, but it still 'feels' more likely that you'll get 1+ sixes from rolling 6 dice than that you will get one six, followed by a four from 12 dice.

[Thenick18]

I always shoot 2x shots. Statistically it works out the same, however, with multiple shots you have the chance to actually do a lot more damage. if the odds are the same to get 10/5 shots/hits as 20/10 shots/hits, what would you do?

[C_freman]

Whenever you need 7s (and only 7s) with multiple shoots, it's better to use single shoots (thus hitting on 6s)

I'm sure there was a table somewhere in the forums detailing this.

[Masamune]

Well, no, because if you need 6s for 100 shots you would expect to hit 16.67, if you doubled the number of shots to hit on 7s (6s followed by 4s) with 200 shots you would hit with 16.67 - exactly the same.

And red your "feels like" argument is irrelevant. We are DE, we feel nothing but hatred...

There is indeed only one situation I could think of where you would use the single shot and that is when you already need a 9+ to hit. The only reason this is the case is that a 10+ to hit is impossible and you automatically hit with 0%. Is this even possible for our BS4 warriors without magic hexes or other special abilities?

Moving and shooting at long range against skirmishers in hard cover? I think that's about it.

[Masamune]

Oh, anyways the point was that I was more after tactical situations where you might want to do this. Statistically the answer is obvious but I was wondering if there was any time where you might want to do less damage to a unit and try to lock in combat or something like that.

[Mr. anderson]

masamune has it right. The thing is, though - if you were hitting on 7s instead of 6s, it makes no difference. Usually shooting twice is better than shooting once, but because the step from 6s to 7s halves your odds, whereas the step from hitting on 5s to 6s only reduces them by 1/6th, doubling the shots doesn't mean more hits any more, it just doesn't make a difference.

Generally, double shots is always better. But if you find that you have trouble rolling 4+ (I know I do - I swear my 5+ armour is somehow of better quality than my 4+ armour), then you might as well use single shots, because seeing as statistically it makes no difference, the only way to discriminate between the two is considering how you feel...

[Drei]

Statistic is a very complicated buisness and can easily lead to wrong decision if u dont look at the whole picture. IMO the question is : How urgent do i need the kills and how many dice will i roll.


If u roll many dice single and multishoot will give u the same result.

But if u dont roll many dice (maybe <15) and u need the kills, choose single shot.

[C_freman]

Yeah, you're right, I don't know where i got the idea from :S

Here:

http://www.druchii.net/viewtopic.php?t=57116&highlight=multishoot

[Red...]

And red your "feels like" argument is irrelevant. We are DE, we feel nothing but hatred...

It's not irrelevant, just not statistically relevant. Personally I hate rolling for 6s and 4s, it just feels far more improbable than rolling for just 6s. That's quite a common phenomenon by the way, I'm by no means the other DE player out there who will trade multishots for single shotting in those circumstances.

[Burizan]

Repeating isn't the same as not repeating just because the average works out to the same. The standard deviation changes.

Effectively this means that shooting on 6s is less predictable, so is more likely to net you a few more or a few less hits than usual, while hitting on 5s will give you a result closer to the mean, usually.

If you need ~ the average for a reason then single shot, and if you're after a desperate miracle then multishot. Repeating really shines with 0/1 other modifiers, its only when you need a high number to hit that you need to think about it

[Durzod]

One more factor would be time. If in a timed game I think I'm running close to the limit I might just single shot if I need over 6 to hit. The extra time needed to collect and throw the confirming dice might make a difference. Especially in situations where the game is over when time is called and no more dice are rolled. Not a common situation but it is there.
On the whole I find the intimidation factor too good to pass up. After all, WHAT IF all those dice hit and wound?

[Carolus]

Consider this; casting statistics aside, you choose to multi-shot and roll 20 dices instead of 10. You get very lucky with your rolls and actually hit alot of them, let's say 12 hits. Obviously this wouldn't be possible if you only rolled 10 dice

[Masamune]

I find the psychological argument to be a good one. When you are throwing out 40 shots your opponent may place that unit as a higher target priority than if you just throw out 20, even if statistically it's exactly the same hits. Similarly you could do the reverse and make your unit seem less threatening. I like it - very Sun Tzu.

The time argument is also a good one. Less dice = quicker game.

In terms of standard deviation that is a good point but would there even be enough dice rolls in a game to make that significant?

[Ant]

If the average number of hits is the same, then it is always better to single shot. This is because the percentage chance of doing no wounds at all is higher if you multishot. It sounds counter intuitive, but if you do the maths it is true. This is because the vanishingly small chance of getting lots (10+ when shooting 20 shots) of hits skews the average when multishotting. Because there is no chance of getting more than 10 hits whensingle shotting, the average isn't skewed as much. And since the average is the same for both there must be less chance of getting no hits if you single shot.

[Burizan]

There's a large amount of confusion over statistics here, it's not flawed but the average doesn't tell you everything about the situation being described. You are sort of right ant, in that the small chance of getting large number of 6s effects averages, however this chance is so small the average isn't affected much.

Standard deviation changes significantly, meaning the average amount the actual dice roll is 'off' from the average is higher when you multishot. So yes, its possible to get 20 hits from 10 rxbmen if you roll all 6, but you are also more likely to get 20 misses than with single shots.

Thusly, its how much damage NEEDS to be done that is key.

If you need above average damage multishot - at high risk of fluffing
If you need about average damage then single shot - much harder to fluff.

Psychology can be important sure, but if a ridiculous number of dice get rolled and nothing happens it can work against you.

[Calisson]

There is one situation when multishot brings lower average stat result than singleshot:
If the number of shots exceeds the number of victims.
In that case, you risk to waste some (unlikely) kills with a lucky multishot, lowering the average expectancy.

Summary:
If you need "4" or "5" to multishoot, multishoot.
If you need "6" or better to multishoot, it's usually better to single shoot, ...
except if you need above-average-results (in the same way as you need to win a lottery, so you have to try, no matter how low the probability to get the result you wish).

[Dalamar]

You're slightly off track Calisson.

100 crossbowmen shooting at 5+ with a single shot = 33.3 hits
100 crossbowmen shooting at 6+ with a double shot = 33.3 hits

Exactly the same average with 200 shots having a chance of doing more than 100 hits (very unlikely but something that you can't do at all with 100 shots)

Now,

100 crossbowmen shooting single shots at 6+ = 16.6 hits
100 crossbowmen shooting double shots at 7+ (6+ followed by 4+) = 16.6 hits

Surprise, it's still the same.

Only difference is visible at lower "to hit" values

100 crossbowmen shooting single shots at 4+ = 50 hits.
100 crossbowmen shooting single shots at 5+ = 66.6 hits

where multiple shot becomes more advantageous.

[Ant]

You are missing the point Dalamar. We agree that the average is the same in both situations. The difference is in how that average is acheived.

As I explaied before, there is more chance of doing nothing if you multishot in such a situation. There is also more chance of doing loads of wounds as well, but since the odds of this are so vanishingly small it is not something you should ever base a strategy on. So it is better to single shot because there is a higher chance of doing something rather than nothing.

[Garbidge]

To illustrate Ant's point:

a single crossbowman, hitting on 5s before multiple shot.

Single shot: 2/3 =24/36 miss, 1/3 = 12/36 hit

multiple shots: (5/6)^2 = 25/36 miss, (1/6)^2 = 1/36 hit twice, the rest (10/36) hit once

[Fr0]

I don't repeat when it would require 6s.

[Calisson]

To illustrate Ant's point:

a single crossbowman, hitting on 5s before multiple shot.

Single shot: 2/3 =24/36 miss, 1/3 = 12/36 hit

multiple shots: (5/6)^2 = 25/36 miss, (1/6)^2 = 1/36 hit twice, the rest (10/36) hit once

@Dalamar
The average result is the same (12/36 = 10/36 + 2x1/36), I know.
However, if you want to shoot at a target which has only 1 wound left, better single shoot => less chances to miss, and no chance to overkill.

Extrapolate for larger units.

On the other hand, if you want to shoot at a target which has 2 wounds left (or 2 wounds are required to trigger a panic test, however unlikely, and get a unit run off the table), then avoid the useless single shot.

[Burizan]

Actually Calisson you were right the first time, the average does reduce slightly, albeit mostly insignificantly (x<1%).

Simple example for why is shooting a single W model with a single rxbmen. Single shot needing 5s to hit -> outcomes are HIT and MISS.

Repeating:
HIT HIT
MISS HIT
HIT MISS
MISS MISS

Now 2 hits can only ever inflict one wound, taking the other wound out of the equation and lowering average inflicted wounds.


Simples

[Valkyre]

The only reason i can thinkf of to skip on multishooting is whne your troops for some random reason (be is special tournament rules or that poisonous forest) get poisoned weaponry and single shots needs 6's and multishot needs 7's.

other than that, callison can say ye have a chance to kill more than there are models, and thus statistically being off, still, i would not mind killing 11 out of 10 models in a unit where i would only kill 9 max with single shot .

overkill is never wasted

[Ichiyo1821]

Lol. Really to make things simple, multi-shot all they way. At most you get to shoot for 3 turns for us to do statistics too much. The margin of discrepancy is abysmal at the pointage people normally play. If you are going to use archers in this edition, commit them period. if not leave them at home. 8th edition again is all or nothing. Either your crossbowmen do something to influence the game or not does not always equate to kills. Keep firing those bolts even if you kill nothing, if you quote Sun-Tzu the moment your opponent sees minimal damage done by your crossbows in a turn or even an entire game and ignores them, your next turn or game might be different and take him by surprise with good rolls from the RXB. The point of multishot aside from the psychological factor is in 8th edition you can wound ANYTHING on 6's. The more attacks, hits you dish out the more chances of scoring that 6. Anyway you look at it just multishot.