Harpies as mage killers...something doesn't add up....

How to beat those cowardly High Elves?

Moderators: Layne, The Dread Knights

User avatar
Timz
Cold One Knight
Posts: 218
Joined: Wed Jan 27, 2010 2:35 am

Post by Timz »

Bitterman wrote:
Timz wrote:Okay, so say the harpies have 12 attacks. What % chance do they have of killing a mage?

According to your earlier math, (25% to put a wound on a mage with a harpy attack and 6 attacks.) then 12 harpy attacks has more than a 100% chance to kill a mage.

That means it'd be impossible to not kill a mage with 2 squads of 5 harpies.

THAT is why I do not buy the simple math being proposed.


Well, when dealing with probabilities you don't add them together (and no-one but you has claimed you should!),


Actually, that was his original math claim. Refer to the quote.
User avatar
Red...
Generalissimo
Posts: 3750
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:09 pm
Location: Baltimore

Post by Red... »

Actually, that was his original math claim. Refer to the quote.


*weary sigh*

Sorry if what I posted was confusing.

What I meant is that you can estimate that the most probable outcome will be a multiplication of the outcome of one probability roll.

If there is a 1 in 4 chance that you will kill a mage with one harpy attack then the most likely outcome of four attacks is that you will get 1 kill and the most likely outcome of 6 attacks is 1.5 kills.

Technically its not correct: no probability is ever guaranteed and indeed you are as likely to roll 1,1,1,1,1 on 5 dice as you are to roll any other sequence of numbers: that's the basis for most national lotteries by the way: any one sequence of numbers is as probable (or improbable as the case may be) to occur as any other sequence.

BUT

Commonsense says that if you roll a dice 6 times and there is a 1 in 3 chance that you will get the score you need (e.g. rolling a D6 six times, needing to get a 5+) then its fair to say that, on average, you should get the score you need twice. It's of course fully possible that you will get the score you need more than twice and equally possible that you will get the score you need less than twice. Its not guaranteed, but for the purposes of a fairly casual side hobby its probably a fair enough way to measure possible likelihoods of success. [Edit: I might add, looking back at my original post, that I did say "on average" at that stage too. No mention of 'guaranteed' at all]
Last edited by Red... on Thu May 20, 2010 4:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"While all answers are replies, not all replies are answers. So answer the question."

Don't be a munchkin?

Image

I am an Extraordinary Druchii Gentleman
Bitterman
Beastmaster
Posts: 319
Joined: Mon Apr 19, 2010 9:08 pm

Post by Bitterman »

Timz wrote:Actually, that was his original math claim. Refer to the quote.


Refer to Google, or wait till you cover it in school. I'm out.
User avatar
Ant
Lord of the Venom Sword
Posts: 2171
Joined: Mon May 09, 2005 12:58 pm
Location: London

Post by Ant »

Actually, Timz is right (Well, he's still off by 0.1%, but that's allowed since it's an iterative program).

The probability of Killing the mage with 6 attacks is 46.6%

Heres why:

The probablity of killing the mage is 1 - P(doing no wounds) - P(doing exactly 1 wound)

P(0 wounds) = 0.75^6
P(1 wound) = 6 * 0.75^5 *0.25 (the *6 at the start is because there are 6 possible combinations of this same result)

1 - 0.75^6 - (6 * 0.75^5 *0.25) = 0.466 or 46.6%


I think an apology is in order Bitterman...

ps
off the top of my head it would be 1 - ( ( 0.75 ^ 12 ) + ( 0.75 ^ 11 * 0.25 ) ) or about 0.96 => 96%. I might have overlooked something there.

You overlooked multiplying ( 0.75 ^ 11 * 0.25 ) by 12 for the number of possible combinations of this result. This gives an 84.1% chance of 12 attacks killing the mage. Try running that on your simulator Timz.
Last edited by Ant on Fri May 21, 2010 9:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
Ash010110 wrote: I completely agree with Ant (Reynolds, I presume?).

(Please note, I am NOT Anthony Reynolds)
User avatar
Ant
Lord of the Venom Sword
Posts: 2171
Joined: Mon May 09, 2005 12:58 pm
Location: London

Post by Ant »

fully possible that you will get the score you need more than twice and equally possible that you will get the score you need less than twice


This is where you slip up Red. the chance of getting more than the average is not equal to the chance of getting less than the average. The Average is skewed by the small probabilities of getting large numbers of wounds.

Google "Binomial distribution" for more info.
Ash010110 wrote: I completely agree with Ant (Reynolds, I presume?).

(Please note, I am NOT Anthony Reynolds)
Bitterman
Beastmaster
Posts: 319
Joined: Mon Apr 19, 2010 9:08 pm

Post by Bitterman »

Ant wrote:I think an apology is in order Bitterman...


Bah... but, no, because... gah. That is... aargh. Fine. Right, yes, sorry, 46.6% not 50%. I got that wrong - I overlooked it while banging my head against a brick wall trying to teach GCSE maths. Sorry.

Not 67% though, and definitely not 100%. And 50% is still an excellent back-of-the-envelope approximation.
User avatar
Dalamar
Dragon Lord
Dragon Lord
Posts: 9675
Joined: Sat Sep 21, 2002 6:42 pm
Location: Designing new breeds of Dragons

Post by Dalamar »

All probability boils down to one result.

50/50

It will happen or it won't.
7th edition army book:
Games Played: 213
Games Won: 114 (54%)
Games Drawn: 33 (15%)
Games Lost: 66 (31%)

8th Edition army book W/D/L:
Druchii: 36/4/16
Bitterman
Beastmaster
Posts: 319
Joined: Mon Apr 19, 2010 9:08 pm

Post by Bitterman »

Or, it will happen AND it won't. See Schrodinger's Cat.
User avatar
Dalamar
Dragon Lord
Dragon Lord
Posts: 9675
Joined: Sat Sep 21, 2002 6:42 pm
Location: Designing new breeds of Dragons

Post by Dalamar »

Today my harpies charged a unit with a wizard

6 attacks, 5 hits, 0 wounds.

Probability sucks.
7th edition army book:
Games Played: 213
Games Won: 114 (54%)
Games Drawn: 33 (15%)
Games Lost: 66 (31%)

8th Edition army book W/D/L:
Druchii: 36/4/16
Vulcan
Malekith's Best Friend
Posts: 1012
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2010 12:13 am

Post by Vulcan »

Of course, all this MathHammer assumes that the other guy has also done the math and knows what's coming. Some players don't... and they are vulnerable to being spooked into putting their wizards in sub-optimal places to 'protect' them from the harpies... :twisted:
User avatar
Calisson
Corsair
Corsair
Posts: 8820
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2008 10:00 pm
Location: Hag Graef

Post by Calisson »

Vulcan wrote:Of course, all this MathHammer assumes that the other guy has also done the math and knows what's coming. Some players don't... and they are vulnerable to being spooked into putting their wizards in sub-optimal places to 'protect' them from the harpies... :twisted:
Even knowing the maths, having a 150pts sorceress 46.6% vulnerable to be killed by a 55pts harpy unit is nothing to laugh at.

LOL! you charged my sorceress! You did not know that she has 53.4% chances to survive! The fool of you! :lol:




Bitterman wrote:Or, it will happen AND it won't. See Schrodinger's Cat.
:shock: D.net climbs to impressive heights nowadays!
Winds never stop blowing, Oceans are borderless. Get a ship and a crew, so the World will be ours! Today the World, tomorrow Nagg! {--|oBrotherhood of the Coast!o|--}
Oryxwild
Trainee Warrior
Posts: 29
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2010 4:39 am

Post by Oryxwild »

I think bitterman is indeed quite bitter, but all this math geekery and debate is making me extremely happy.
User avatar
Ant
Lord of the Venom Sword
Posts: 2171
Joined: Mon May 09, 2005 12:58 pm
Location: London

Post by Ant »

All probability boils down to one result.

50/50

It will happen or it won't.

If you truly believed this you'd have a skaven army consisting only of slaves. If everything has a 50/50 chance of winning, then the guy with the most models is sure to win...

Or, it will happen AND it won't. See Schrodinger's Cat.
Lol
Ash010110 wrote: I completely agree with Ant (Reynolds, I presume?).

(Please note, I am NOT Anthony Reynolds)
User avatar
Red...
Generalissimo
Posts: 3750
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:09 pm
Location: Baltimore

Post by Red... »

LMAO. Dalamar and Calisson, I really laughed at your posts this morning! :)


49.99945% chance of rolling a 1,2 or 3 on one dice
49.99945% chance of rolling a 4,5 or 6
0.0001% chance of the dice blowing up.


I have a new proposal though, lets stop using dice and use a magic eight ball instead:

"Will my executioner's pass their fear test?"
"Don't count on it"

"Will my blackguard win combat against his Goblins?"
"All signs point to yes"

"Will my Dreadlord defeat his High Elf Noble in the decisive combat of the battle?"
"Ask again later"

Works like a charm :)
"While all answers are replies, not all replies are answers. So answer the question."

Don't be a munchkin?

Image

I am an Extraordinary Druchii Gentleman
User avatar
Vaari
Black Guard
Posts: 296
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:53 pm
Location: NZ

Post by Vaari »

It is your foolish trust in Mathhammer that leads to the Dice Gods abandoning you...

"There is no way in hell these 60 shots will cause no wounds"
..followed by..
"that is a f**kload of 1's.."
Group 28
Name - Seijl Illydrien Class- Shade
Character Stats
- WS 6 - - S 3 - - T 3 - - D 4 - - I 4 -
Equipment
MC Light Armour, MC Buckler, MC Longsword,, Repeater Crossbow, Dagger w/ UC, Dagger w/ DV Shade Cloak. Field Kit (Healing x3), Vials of Unseen Chains (x3 uses) , Vials of Dark Venom (x4 uses) , Lamia Fang, Harpy Claws
Circlets : 260, , Emerald Eye (200Circ.) Rations: 10/10 Bolts: 16/20 , Null Stone
Skills
Basic Stealth - Heal
Post Reply