D.R.A.I.C.H. Pick up the spell you want.
Posted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 11:00 pm
For hurried readers, the last chapter is the summary.
1. Why do I wish to select specific spells?
In the present edition, all Lores have been improved.
Nowadays, there is hardly any spell which is scrap.
As a result, you can safely assume that whichever spell you pick is going to be useful, and adjust your strategy on the battlefield according to the spells you’ve got.
But I want more predictability.
If I could select one or two specific spells, and be highly confident that I will get them, then I could build up my army taking that specific spell into account.
Example: all spells in Dark Lore are awesome. However, I may wish that my Level 4, who happens to be my general, get specifically spell #5 Soulstealer in order to gain more wounds. Is this possible?
Or could I be certain to get both #5 and # 6 Black Horror, and plan on that? Or at least one of these two spells?
Finally, I could select a specific Lore because spell #1 and #2 are excellent against Stunties while spell #3 and #4 are outstanding against Lizzies; when I face my opponent, am I going to get the spells appropriate to my opponent?
2. Spell selection.
P. 490. Your sorceresses have selected their Lores beforehand, at the same time as you create your army. Lores may no more be adapted to the opponent you happen to meet.
If you have several sorceresses, you select who gets his spells first.
Roll 1D6 per sorceress’ level. It indicates which spell the sorceress gets.
If you roll a spell twice, whether for the same sorceress or because another sorceress already has that spell, then you replace the duplicate spell with another spell of your choice in the same Lore, which is not taken yet.
After choosing replacements for duplicates, you can substitute one of the spell you rolled with either the signature spell (for BRB Lores – I call this spell Spell #0) or with Spell #1 (for Dark Magic), these spells being allowed to be taken several times.
As a consequence:
- Signature spell can be granted, just like Dark Lore #1.
- The higher the level, the more likely you get duplicates, therefore the more likely you can select the very one spell you dream of. Or possibly the two spells you really wished you had.
- If your two sorceresses take the same Lore, then the second one will have many more opportunities to roll duplicates, therefore your chances to get the specific spell you wish increase.
I will now examine what are the odds of getting a specific spell, according to the level of the sorceress.
If the odds are close to 100%, then it is reasonable to build up your army “knowing” that you’ll get this or that specific spell available.
Next, I’ll consider that two Sorceresses take the same Lore, in order to increase the odds that the highest level gets the one or two spell you want.
I’ll examine if it is reasonable for competitive friendly games, where you accept a moderate risk of failure, and for tournaments, where you’re supposed to play several games with the same list and you want to get the highest certainties you can get.
In order to fix ideas, I’ll always consider that you really want spell #6, and if you want two spells, they will be #6 and #5. Of course, the same result would be true for any other given spell selection.
Be aware that I am not a statistician, so the odds may be mistaken sometimes, especially the odds to get spell #5 and #6, which are very tricky.
3. Getting specific spells with one sorceress.
With a single sorceress using a Lore, chances to get Spell #6 are:
72,2%with a Level 3.
90,7%with a Level 4
98,5%with a Level 4 and her Tome of Furion.
I consider that a Level 4 is enough for a competitive friendly game, that is 1/11 games against your strategy.
For a competition, it is not enough and the ToF is mandatory. Too bad, this precludes the use of any other Arcane item. This is why a second Sorceress is to be considered, using the same Lore.
If either one of Spell #5 or #6 was acceptable, the odds become:
88,9% with a Level 3 (or Level 2+ToF), enough for a competitive friendly game
98,1% with a Level 4, fine for a tournament.
If I want to base my strategy on getting simultaneously #5 and #6, then the odds are:
83,3% with a Level 4, barely acceptable for a competitive friendly game
96,9% with a Level 4+ToF, fine for a tournament.
4. Two sorceresses, two Lores.
In tournament level games, only two Level 4 can grant you the availability of spell #6 or #5 in Lore X and the availability of spell # 4 or #3 in Lore Y, with a likelihood of 96.3%.
In competitive games, you could hope for getting spell # 6 and #5 in Lore X and spell #4 and #3 in Lore Y with your two Level 4, you’ll be on spot for 7 games out of 10!
1. Why do I wish to select specific spells?
In the present edition, all Lores have been improved.
Nowadays, there is hardly any spell which is scrap.
As a result, you can safely assume that whichever spell you pick is going to be useful, and adjust your strategy on the battlefield according to the spells you’ve got.
But I want more predictability.
If I could select one or two specific spells, and be highly confident that I will get them, then I could build up my army taking that specific spell into account.
Example: all spells in Dark Lore are awesome. However, I may wish that my Level 4, who happens to be my general, get specifically spell #5 Soulstealer in order to gain more wounds. Is this possible?
Or could I be certain to get both #5 and # 6 Black Horror, and plan on that? Or at least one of these two spells?
Finally, I could select a specific Lore because spell #1 and #2 are excellent against Stunties while spell #3 and #4 are outstanding against Lizzies; when I face my opponent, am I going to get the spells appropriate to my opponent?
2. Spell selection.
P. 490. Your sorceresses have selected their Lores beforehand, at the same time as you create your army. Lores may no more be adapted to the opponent you happen to meet.
If you have several sorceresses, you select who gets his spells first.
Roll 1D6 per sorceress’ level. It indicates which spell the sorceress gets.
If you roll a spell twice, whether for the same sorceress or because another sorceress already has that spell, then you replace the duplicate spell with another spell of your choice in the same Lore, which is not taken yet.
After choosing replacements for duplicates, you can substitute one of the spell you rolled with either the signature spell (for BRB Lores – I call this spell Spell #0) or with Spell #1 (for Dark Magic), these spells being allowed to be taken several times.
As a consequence:
- Signature spell can be granted, just like Dark Lore #1.
- The higher the level, the more likely you get duplicates, therefore the more likely you can select the very one spell you dream of. Or possibly the two spells you really wished you had.
- If your two sorceresses take the same Lore, then the second one will have many more opportunities to roll duplicates, therefore your chances to get the specific spell you wish increase.
I will now examine what are the odds of getting a specific spell, according to the level of the sorceress.
If the odds are close to 100%, then it is reasonable to build up your army “knowing” that you’ll get this or that specific spell available.
Next, I’ll consider that two Sorceresses take the same Lore, in order to increase the odds that the highest level gets the one or two spell you want.
I’ll examine if it is reasonable for competitive friendly games, where you accept a moderate risk of failure, and for tournaments, where you’re supposed to play several games with the same list and you want to get the highest certainties you can get.
In order to fix ideas, I’ll always consider that you really want spell #6, and if you want two spells, they will be #6 and #5. Of course, the same result would be true for any other given spell selection.
Be aware that I am not a statistician, so the odds may be mistaken sometimes, especially the odds to get spell #5 and #6, which are very tricky.
3. Getting specific spells with one sorceress.
With a single sorceress using a Lore, chances to get Spell #6 are:
72,2%with a Level 3.
90,7%with a Level 4
98,5%with a Level 4 and her Tome of Furion.
I consider that a Level 4 is enough for a competitive friendly game, that is 1/11 games against your strategy.
For a competition, it is not enough and the ToF is mandatory. Too bad, this precludes the use of any other Arcane item. This is why a second Sorceress is to be considered, using the same Lore.
If either one of Spell #5 or #6 was acceptable, the odds become:
88,9% with a Level 3 (or Level 2+ToF), enough for a competitive friendly game
98,1% with a Level 4, fine for a tournament.
If I want to base my strategy on getting simultaneously #5 and #6, then the odds are:
83,3% with a Level 4, barely acceptable for a competitive friendly game
96,9% with a Level 4+ToF, fine for a tournament.
4. Two sorceresses, two Lores.
In tournament level games, only two Level 4 can grant you the availability of spell #6 or #5 in Lore X and the availability of spell # 4 or #3 in Lore Y, with a likelihood of 96.3%.
In competitive games, you could hope for getting spell # 6 and #5 in Lore X and spell #4 and #3 in Lore Y with your two Level 4, you’ll be on spot for 7 games out of 10!
