LordDrittz wrote:Looking at your Maths a different way.
If 2 single bolts hit Skull crushers there is a 100% chance of killing 1, a better than 44% chance of killing 2 or more.
Dear no. That's not how it works, no offense. With 25% of neither bolt hitting its target, you can't have 100% chance of killing 1.
With 2 bolts you get:
- 25% neither hit. Total 0 wounds, chance 25% (1/4)
- 50% one hits
- 33% no wounds. Total 0 wounds, chance 16.6% (1/6)
- 66% to wound
- 33% to give 1 wound. Total 1 wound, chance: 11.1% (1/9)
- 66% to give 2 wounds.
- 50% no additional wound. Total 2 wounds, chance: 11.1% (1/9)
- 50% to wound
- 33% to give 1 wound. Total 3 wounds, chance: 3.7% (1/27)
- 66% to give 2 wounds or more. Total 4 wounds or more, chance: 7.4% (2/27)
- 25% to have 2 hits
- 11% no wounds. Total 0 wounds, chance 2.8% (1/36)
- 44% to have 1 wound, 1 fail
- 33% to give 1 wound. Total 1 wounds, chance: 3.7% (1/27)
- 66% to give 2 wounds.
- 50% no additional wound. Total 2 wounds, chance: 3.7% (1/27 )
- 50% to wound
- 33% to give 1 wound. Total 3 wounds, chance: 1.2% (1/81)
- 66% to give 2 wounds or more. Total 4 wounds or more, chance: 2.5% (2/81)
- 44% to have 2 wounds.
- 33% first bolt does 1 wound and stops.
- 33% second bolt does 1 wound and stops. Total 2 wounds, chance 1.2% (1/81)
- 66% second bolt does 2 wounds
- 50% second bolt doesn't wound again. Total 3 wounds, chance 1.2% (1/81)
- 50% second bolt does wound and total is 4 or more wounds. Total 4 or more, chance 1.2% (1/81)
- 66% first bolt does 2 wounds.
- 50% first bolt doesn't wound again.
- 33% second bolt does 1 wound and stops. Total 3 wounds, chance 1.2% (1/81)
- 66% second bolt does 2 wounds. Total 4 wounds or more, chance 2.4% (2/81)
- 50% first bolt wounds again. It does 1 at least and so does the second. Total: 4 wounds or more, chance 3.7% (1/27)
- 50% first bolt doesn't wound again.
- 33% first bolt does 1 wound and stops.
For total wounds we get:
- 0 wounds: 44.4% or 16/36
- 1 wound: 14.8%, 4/27
- 2 wounds: 16.0% 13/81
- 3 wounds: 7.4% 2/27
- 4 or more wounds: 17.3% 14/81
Or cummulative:
- 0 wounds: 44.4% or 16/36
- 1 or more wounds: 55.5% or 5/9
- 2 or more wounds: 40.7% or 11/27
- 3 or more wounds: 24.7% or 20/81
- 4 or more wounds: 17.3% or 14/81
I am unsure the cost of the Skullcrushers but killing 2 should almost recoup the cost of the RBT's and any extra would be a bonus.
Killing two should recups the cost of 1 and a tad. You'd need to kill 3-4 to break even.
RBT's may need several turns to be useful if they get ignored as you suggest this is when they shine, 6 rounds of shooting from even 2 RBT's will have an impact.
By round 2 or three, the juicy targets may just be in combat. I didn't ignore them... but they are easy to take out. It simply depends: if it's more important to have 1 or two rounds of shooting on something else or not. If so, then be sure that by turn 3 or 4 your RBTs ain't firing anything important.
The Lore of Metal spell Enchanted Blades can further enhance one of the RBT's chances of hitting. So with a Level 4 on Metal this would be a possible option.
True.. but it's not an almighty spell. It buffs 1 RBT. To put it crudely, if you shoot at empire state troopers on long range, 2 RBTs give about 6 hits. With the buff, they give about 7 hits. Surely we can have units to benefit more from this?
The Skullcrushers seem hard to deal with whatever we use shades are unlikely to be better than the RBT's in this instance due to 6's to wound and the 1+ AS of the Skullcrushers.
Absolutely agree. That's the problem. The RBT's aren't "effective". They do something, every now and then, but they are not -strong- against it. Neither are Shades. And the units the RBT really can make a difference against.. Those can be done by Shades too, probably. Whenever RBTs may outclass RXBs the margin is either small, or the total effect of the RBTs is too small to be an effective strategy.
Their performance is too close to those of RXBs in tough situations. Take Bret Knights:
- On long range, 2 RBTs score 6 hits, 4 wounds, 2 kills.
- On short range (you place them closer to the battleline or enemy came closer): 8 hits, 5-6 wounds, 2-3 kills. Top score there for RBTs. Ideal situation.
- 20 RXBs, long range, 13-14 hits, 6-7 wounds, 2-3 kills. Small difference.
You bring in magic with the Blades of Aiban:
- On long range, 2 RBTs, 7 hits, 4-5 wounds, 2-3 kills. Minor improvement
- On short range, 2 RBTs, 9 hits, 6 wounds, 3 kills. Small improvement
- 20 RXBs, long range, 20 hits, 10 wounds, 3-4 kills.
Take T3, 5+ AS troops.
- Long range, 2 RBTs, 6 hits, 4 wounds, 4 kills
- Short range, 2 RBTs, 8 hits, 5-6 wounds, 5-6 kills
- 20 RXBs, long range, 13-14 hits, 6-7 wounds, about 5 kills.
In comes the spell:
- Long range, 2 RBTs, 7 hits, 4-5 wounds, 4-5 kills
- Short range, 2 RBTs, 9 hits, 6 wounds, 6 kills
- 20 RXBs, long range, 20 hits, 10 wounds, 8-9 kills.
You don't want to know what happens when troops get into close range of the RXBs
This is a core choice, a required slot to fill, compared to a rare choice which inevitably costs points from either characters or specials.
Why do High Elves see this differently though? Because they don't have RXBs. They have to work with bows and can far more rely on their troops to handle armor. I think only their archers, spearmen and eagles are somewhat ineffective against armor. They don't have Shades either. They can't get their shooting from elsewhere other than bows. Their bows are alright, but with only 1 shot per bow they need something that can put weight in that phase. RBTs can do that... somewhat.
Shades have a devastating shooting power, but also close up and personal role in our game. RXBs can serve as bunker for Sorcs (guiding eye!). They can do more than just shoot and yet they can rival a rare choice warmachine. We have other sources to get firepower from, from units who can offer more than solely the firepower. That.. I think.. is our major difference with the High Elves and why RBTs are not a "bad" but a somewhat weak choice.