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RBT Damage Calculator (summary)
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Author:  Zhou tai [ Sun Jun 13, 2004 4:56 pm ]
Post subject:  RBT Damage Calculator (summary)

Because I can, because I want to, and because I don't want to repeat myself when someone contends that RBTs are the best way to kill troop type X (specifically Brets). [To Mods - would this summary be "worthy" of a sticky, for reference purposes if nothing else?]

The thing is done in Excel (takes about 10 minutes to set up if you know how) - clearly I can't post up the file, but I can provide backup calculations as is needed (I already did somewhat below). Note that I didn't run the numbers for single characters (mounted or otherwise), Large Targets, and Skirmishers/Artillery Crews. [I can do that later if anyone _really_ wamts to...]

Single Fire - Summary
Single Fire__________Range_____Weighted Average Kills
T3 Infantry___________Long_______0.49
T3 Infantry___________Short______0.66
T3 Cavalry (1 rank)____Long______0.42
T3 Cavalry (1 rank)____Short_____0.56
T3 Cavalry (3 ranks)___Long______0.60
T3 Cavalry (3 ranks)___Short_____0.80
Bret Cavalry (3 ranks)_Long______0.28
Bret Cavalry (3 ranks)_Short______0.37
T4 Infantry ___________Long______0.32
T4 Infantry___________Short______0.43
T4 Cavalry (1 rank)____Long_______0.42
T4 Cavalry (1 rank)____Short_____0.56
T4 Cavalry (3 ranks)___Long______0.46
T4 Cavalry (3 ranks)___Short_____0.62

Note - all infantry assumed in ranks of 5.

Multi-fire - Summary
Multi-fire_______________________________Range______Average Kills
HE Spears_________________________________Long_______2.00
HE Spears_________________________________Short_______2.67
Empire Swordsmen (4+Sv)__________________Long_______1.67
Empire Swordsmen (4+Sv)__________________Short_______2.22
Empire Knights (1+Sv)______________________Long______0.67
Empire Knights (1+Sv)______________________Short______0.89
HE Knights (2+Sv)__________________________Long______1.00
HE Knights (2+Sv)__________________________Short______1.33
Bret Knights (2+Sv + Ward)_________________Long_______0.83
Bret Knights (2+Sv + Ward)_________________Short______1.11
Orc Boyz___________________________________Long______1.50
Orc Boyz___________________________________Short______2.00
Grave Guard (4+Sv)_________________________Long______1.25
Grave Guard (4+Sv)________________________Short______1.67
Ironbreakers (3+Sv)________________________Long______1.00
Boarboyz (3+Sv)____________________________Short_____1.33
Chaos Knights (2+Sv)_______________________Long______0.75
Chaos Knights (2+Sv)_______________________Short______1.00
Chosen Knights (1+Sv)______________________Long______0.50
Chosen Knights (1+Sv)______________________Short_____0.67

Note - All troops up to Brets are T3; all troops starting with and below Orc Boyz are T4.

Note 2 - the above figures represent the average number of kills per volley. That is, I assume 6 shots, with 3 to 4 hits depending on range, and plug in Toughness and Armour as appropriate.

Single-fire - Backup Calcs
Important - first (smaller) entry for each troop type is at Long Range, the second is at Short Range. Basically just like the Single Fire Summary table above.

__________________%%1______%%2_____%%3______%%4______%%5
T3 Infantry___________0.42_______0.35______0.23______0.12_______0.04
T3 Infantry___________0.56_______0.46______0.31______0.15_______0.05
T3 Cavalry (1 rank)____0.42
T3 Cavalry (1 rank)____0.56
T3 Cavalry (3 ranks)___0.42_____0.35_______0.23
T3 Cavalry (3 ranks)___0.56_____0.46_______ 0.31
Bret Cavalry (3 ranks)__0.28_____0.15_______0.09
Bret Cavalry (3 ranks)__0.37_____0.21_______0.11
T4 Infantry____________0.42_____0.28_______0.14______0.05_______0.01
T4 Infantry____________0.56_____0.37_______0.19______0.06_______0.01
T4 Cavalry (1 rank)____0.42
T4 Cavalry (1 rank)____0.56
T4 Cavalry (3 ranks)___0.42_____0.28_______ 0.14
T4 Cavalry (3 ranks)___0.56_____0.37_______ 0.19

Note - all infantry is assumed to come in ranked units of 5. No armour save component, but Brets get a Ward save as per their rules.

EDIT 3 - ADDITIONAL TABLES DEALING WITH MONSTERS AND MONSTROUS MOUNTS

Note 1 - both single fire and multi-fire tables consider the same classes of targets. Only the final outcomes of the calculations are presented.

Note 2 - the "Hits" column considers the total expected number of hits vs. a given target class, treating both the rider and his mount (where appropriate) as a single target. The expected Wounds values are then calculated based on the premise that 1/3 of the hits will go against the rider, while 2/3 of the hits will go against the mount.

Note 3 - all T5 and T6 monsters are considered to be Large Targets (+1 to hit) for the purpose of these calculations. All T4 monsters are not. Riders are considered to be a part of their mounts (see Note 2 above) for purposes of Hit percentages. Note that units of monsters (e.g. 2-ranked regiment of Minotaurs or of Khornate Bloodcrushers) are not considered for simplicity's sake.

Note 4 - to reiterate, all these figures are averages, i.e. the values likely to be approached over many trials. On a single game, or single Shooting Phase, basis the actual percentages may vary widely.

Single Fire
Single Fire_____________________Range_____Hits (total)____# of Wounds (excluding Ward Saves)
T4 Monster (Minotaur)__________Long______0.50___________0.83
T4 Monster (Minotaur)__________Short______0.67___________1.11
T4 Mount (Pegasus Mount)______Long______0.50___________0.56
T4 Mount (Pegasus Mount)______Short______0.67___________0.74
T5 Monster (Giant)______________Long______0.67___________0.89
T5 Monster (Giant)______________Short______0.83___________1.11
T5 Mount (Manticore)____________Long______0.67___________0.59
T5 Mount (Manticore)____________Short_____0.83____________0.74
T6 Monster (Bloodthirster)________Long______0.67___________0.67
T6 Monster (Bloodthirster)________Short______0.83___________0.83
T6 Mount (Dragon)_______________Long______0.67___________0.44
T6 Mount (Dragon)_______________Short______0.83___________0.56
T3 Rider_________________________Long______0.50___________0.28
T3 Rider_________________________Short_____0.67____________0.37
T4 Rider_________________________Long______0.50___________0.28
T4 Rider_________________________Short______0.67___________0.37
T5 Rider_________________________Long______0.50___________0.22
T5 Rider_________________________Short______0.67___________0.30
T3 Rider (Large Target)___________Long______0.67___________0.37
T3 Rider (Large Target)___________Short______0.83___________0.46
T4 Rider (Large Target)___________Long______0.67___________0.37
T4 Rider (Large Target)___________Short_____0.83____________0.46
T5 Rider (Large Target)___________Long______0.67___________0.30
T5 Rider (Large Target)___________Short______0.83___________0.37

Notes:
1. Expected Wounds value calculated assuming an average roll of 3-4 on a D3 (i.e. each hit averages 2 wounds).

2. Expected Wounds value is before any Ward Saves imparted to the monster and/or its rider. To find the maximum (D3 roll = 5-6) and minimum (D3 roll = 1-2) expected Wounds before Ward Saves, multiply the results above by 3/2 (maximum) and 1/2 (minimum) respectively.

Multi-fire
Multi Fire________________________Range_____Hits (total)____Wounds Before Saves

T4 Monster (Minotaur)____________Long______3.00__________1.50
T4 Monster (Minotaur)____________Short______4.00__________2.00
T4 Mount (Pegasus Mount)________Long______3.00__________1.00
T4 Mount (Pegasus Mount)________Short______4.00__________1.33
T5 Monster (Giant)________________Long______4.00__________1.33
T5 Monster (Giant)________________Short______5.00_________1.67
T5 Mount (Manticore)______________Long______4.00_________0.89
T5 Mount (Manticore)_____________Short_______5.00_________1.11
T6 Monster (Bloodthirster)_________Long_______4.00_________0.67
T6 Monster (Bloodthirster)_________Short_______5.00_________0.83
T6 Mount (Dragon)_______________Long________4.00_________0.44
T6 Mount (Dragon)________________Short_______5.00_________0.56
T3 Rider_________________________Long________3.00_________0.67
T3 Rider__________________________Short_______4.00_________0.89
T4 Rider__________________________Long_______3.00_________0.50
T4 Rider__________________________Short_______4.00________0.67
T5 Rider_________________________Long________3.00________0.33
T5 Rider_________________________Short_______4.00__________0.44
T3 Rider (Large Target)___________Long_______4.00_________0.89
T3 Rider (Large Target)___________Short_______5.00________1.11
T4 Rider (Large Target)____________Long_______4.00_______0.67
T4 Rider (Large Target)___________Short_______5.00_______0.83
T5 Rider (Large Target)__________Long________4.00_______0.44
T5 Rider (Large Target)__________Short_______5.00________0.56

Notes:
1. Expected Wounds calculated before armour saves. This was done mainly to save space (as each target class can conceivably have any type of armour/ward save). When comparing single-fire to multi-fire against Monsters and Monstrous Mounts, bear in mind that the seemingly better multi-fire results will likely be reduced after saves. Thus, one multi-fire volley at a Dragon (3+ Sv) will actually cause 0.30 and 0.37 wounds at Long and Short range after saves, not 0.44 and 0.56 as shown above.

Author:  Malachi [ Sun Jun 13, 2004 10:47 pm ]
Post subject: 

It certainly is a very interesting read. It kinda makes you think twice about RBT's and who you target with what.

Really nice work, I reall like the stats of warhammer.

Author:  Lord hajjij [ Mon Jun 14, 2004 12:49 am ]
Post subject: 

Very useful, thanks a lot!

Author:  Y.a [ Mon Jun 14, 2004 1:16 am ]
Post subject: 

thx, i think you just helped the druchii generals more then you think.
exelant work.

Author:  Mord. [ Mon Jun 14, 2004 3:14 am ]
Post subject: 

Although the effort of calculating the numbers and relative is chance is appreciated, it is almost useless in-game as units will not be likely to perform on an average. But of course I understand the numbers may help.

Author:  Darkspear [ Mon Jun 14, 2004 4:11 am ]
Post subject: 

i think we have a common conclusion here...rbts r depressing. i feel that the onli stuff worth shooting are light cavalry

Author:  Drakken [ Mon Jun 14, 2004 4:19 am ]
Post subject: 

Yeah, maybe this will make my arguement about RBTs rarely being worth there points easier to win! Maybe I won't have to spew it out bi-weekly to someone anymore! ZT, nice work!

Author:  Mtucache [ Mon Jun 14, 2004 4:38 am ]
Post subject: 

That is truly depressing... not a single shot selection even sniffing the 3+ average kill range. It seems the only viable target for the RBT would be massively ranked T3 troops at close range, and even then you'd be better off with the RXBs... the only way it can be worth it's points and better than the RXBs would be if they had a 4+ or better save, which limits them to large blocks of elite infantry.... which you don't see very often. :roll:

Once again the math tells the whole story. I applaud ZT for putting in the extra effort to post this. I agree it should be a sticky, and probably should end up being an article in the Monthly. (LN, you got that?) ;)

Author:  Shadowkiller venomblade [ Mon Jun 14, 2004 4:40 am ]
Post subject: 

well, my averge shooting on chaos kinghts with the rbt is 2-4 per multishot...

Author:  Dyne [ Mon Jun 14, 2004 4:46 am ]
Post subject: 

well, what i shoot at is any wandering characters(stoopid opponents). single shot btw. so, for example, a chaos scorcerer wanders out his unit- hitting on 4+ (sometimes 5's) then wounding on 2's, with a 2/3rds chance of causing the 2 wounds needed to kill thge bugger. the gist is, if you have 2, its about a 66% chance of killing him. and if hes fully tooled up(really stoopid opponent) thats pretty jmuch the 200pts for the 2 rbt paid back quickly- anything else is a bonus!

Author:  Zentaricai [ Mon Jun 14, 2004 4:51 am ]
Post subject: 

Not that I'm a big numbers guy--but this is why its all or nothing for me with RBT. I either take 4 of them or none at all--and always concentrate all my firign on one unit at a time.

Personally I'll take a hydra any day...

Author:  Noog87 [ Mon Jun 14, 2004 5:11 am ]
Post subject: 

I usually take two repeater bolt throwers, i normally face alot of undead armies. One would think with the undead infantry's general lack of weapon skill and toughness the rbts would be pretty affective, but i have a hard time getting my points back. With this said, i still take them because my opponent generally perceives them as more deadly than they really are. This perceived threat usually makes him move in ways to defend against the rbts, so the rbts help me take control of the movement phase.

Author:  The highest driach-master [ Mon Jun 14, 2004 5:40 am ]
Post subject: 

thanks a lot - useful thing

Author:  3179 [ Mon Jun 14, 2004 5:43 am ]
Post subject: 

i have to admit that's very helpful and impressive, i'm now thinking to take a fiend of slanesh with my CoS instead of my bolt thrower, as i gave it a better paint job...

Author:  Dyvim tvar [ Mon Jun 14, 2004 6:52 am ]
Post subject: 

I've done the math before, but never in this sort of detail.

The biggest mistake people make is to shoot at heavy cavalry with RBTs. Maybe this calculation will convince some of them to change their ways.

Author:  Ash010110 [ Mon Jun 14, 2004 7:30 am ]
Post subject: 

MTUCache wrote:
That is truly depressing... not a single shot selection even sniffing the 3+ average kill range. It seems the only viable target for the RBT would be massively ranked T3 troops at close range, and even then you'd be better off with the RXBs... the only way it can be worth it's points and better than the RXBs would be if they had a 4+ or better save, which limits them to large blocks of elite infantry.... which you don't see very often. :roll:

Once again the math tells the whole story. I applaud ZT for putting in the extra effort to post this. I agree it should be a sticky, and probably should end up being an article in the Monthly. (LN, you got that?) ;)


Hence the reason I take Dogs of War crossbowmen. . . multipurpose, more dice rolled, and less points spent.

May peace be with you,
Ash

Author:  Darkspear [ Mon Jun 14, 2004 4:26 pm ]
Post subject: 

Quote:
well, what i shoot at is any wandering characters(stoopid opponents). single shot btw. so, for example, a chaos scorcerer wanders out his unit- hitting on 4+ (sometimes 5's) then wounding on 2's, with a 2/3rds chance of causing the 2 wounds needed to kill thge bugger. the gist is, if you have 2, its about a 66% chance of killing him. and if hes fully tooled up(really stoopid opponent) thats pretty jmuch the 200pts for the 2 rbt paid back quickly- anything else is a bonus!


i think ur opponent will nt make the same mistakes for long. other than vs light cav....the example DYne propose is the onli chance that make rbt earn its points.

how...who wants to buy my rbt....

Author:  Shadowkiller venomblade [ Tue Jun 15, 2004 4:52 am ]
Post subject: 

i find rbts great, they hit the whole field! vs heavy cav they are useful.

Author:  Mord. [ Tue Jun 15, 2004 6:04 am ]
Post subject: 

MTUCache wrote:
Once again the math tells the whole story.


Sry, but that's not fully true. The math tells that you cannot win a battle on RBT's, the point in taking them is to ensure that you softhen-up enemy units before taking them on with your own units. Just think of it this way: You might take on a complete bretonnian army without any supporting fire and save the points on units, or you can take 2 RBT's concentrate them on a single lance for 2 turns and than get charges off with your own units. I for one would certainly pick the second option...

Anywayz, I cannot deny the numbers, if you roll beneath them your shooting won't be getting you anywere, if you roll above you might just exploit chances you otherwise wouldn't have. Who's to say what can happen and what not? ;)

Greetz,

Author:  Rautha korhadril [ Tue Jun 15, 2004 6:22 am ]
Post subject: 

It's a good summary, and gives you an idea of what to expect from RBT's. However, as some famous dead dude said, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics". Meaning that statistics have to be taken with a grain of salt. You're RBT's can roll average the whole game, or they can hit and wound with every roll, or they could miss and fail to wound all game. And all points inbetween. So it's all really up to the dice gods.

Author:  Mtucache [ Tue Jun 15, 2004 6:48 am ]
Post subject: 

Oooh.... maybe we should come up with some calculations for the standard deviations and levels of confidence for RBT fire against enemy units!!! :D

Okay, maybe that would be a bit much.... but it would be kind of cool to have a mathematical model of RBT performance and an expected number of wounds per volley against any opponent. ;)

Author:  Voodoomaster [ Tue Jun 15, 2004 9:17 am ]
Post subject: 

RBT's are great remeber that the miltiple shots -2 to the armour save and aginst large units of infantry that can be very useful.

Author:  Simon le bon [ Tue Jun 15, 2004 11:24 am ]
Post subject: 

Excellent post and confirmation of what I have tried to convince my local gaming club of for a long time. RBT are expensive, fragile and generally wasted points. They live for two turns if you are lucky, kills four models and are then wiped of the table.... not a good investment in my book.

The funny thing is when people say... "well, I have seen the statistics but I still take them because I think I will do better..." Well.... the hard truth is that you cannot beat the numbers... just pack those darn machines away and spend your points on something worthwhile :D [/i]

Author:  Druchii77 [ Tue Jun 15, 2004 4:45 pm ]
Post subject: 

I agree that shooting at heavy cavalry is a useless waste of the RBTs but I believe them to be very useful. Depending on deployment zones, I use get the first kills of the game with them. Also counting the great BS of 4 that dark elves have it is really easy to hit with them. statistically you should hit 3 out of the 6 times at long ranges and about 4 out of the 6 at short range. With a -2 to armor saves I will take my chances. That is way more punch than a S3 rxb shot. The only part about them is the shear number of shots. I personally take both. My enemy will think twice before blindly charging me.

Author:  Grogsnotpowwabomba [ Wed Jun 16, 2004 5:12 pm ]
Post subject: 

I will sticky this for the time being as it is very useful for people to have an idea how their RBT will perform, a friend of mine wrote it, and because it supports my general view that the RBT is not worth using. :lol:

If anyone objects please PM me. Thanks. :)

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