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RXB Multiple Shot Rule - Any reason to not use it? 
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Assassin

Joined: Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:33 pm
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If you want to single shoot play an army with regular crossbows, we have the technology to shoot twice the bolts, twice the carnage, do it.


Wed Sep 29, 2010 3:52 am
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Corsair
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Well, everyone agrees that:
- it's better to need to roll 4-5 to multishoot than 3-4 to singleshoot.
- it's better to need to roll 9 (6 and 6) to singleshoot than waste your multishoot which would require 10.
- in all other cases, the average result for multishoot is the same as, or extremely close to the average result for single shoot, so go for whichever you like better.

For experts, there is a nuance in the last case: multishoot is more prone to extreme (good or bad) results than singleshoot, so if the average result is enough for the effect you wish, go for single shoot, but if you need the lucky better than average result, better multishoot (and risk the bad luck to an extreme fail).


Wed Sep 29, 2010 6:20 am
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Black Guard

Joined: Tue Mar 02, 2010 10:49 pm
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Calisson wrote:
For experts, there is a nuance in the last case: multishoot is more prone to extreme (good or bad) results than singleshoot, so if the average result is enough for the effect you wish, go for single shoot, but if you need the lucky better than average result, better multishoot (and risk the bad luck to an extreme fail).


Absolute gibberish. There is no instance, where multishot achieves a lower chance of success compared to single shot. You either achieve a better chance or the exact same chance.

3+ = 66.7% chance
4+ = 50.0% chance
5+ = 33.3% chance
6+ = 16.7% chance
7+ = 8.3% chance
8+ = 5.5% chance
9+ = 2.8% chance

So only when you go from 5-6, 6-7 and 8-9, are there no bonus from multishot. The rest is purely psychological :)


Wed Sep 29, 2010 11:32 am
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Assassin

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We can draw up sigma graphs and run statistical analysis and what not, but this is getting redundant... nothing new is being said.


Wed Sep 29, 2010 11:49 am
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Lord of the Venom Sword
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@The Virgin Forest: You are looking at the wrong thing. We agree that the average number of wounds is the same if you need 5+ single shotting or 6+ multishotting. But if you multi shot you are more likely to do no damage at all than you are if you single shot.

The below quote illustrates this perfectly:
Quote:
To illustrate Ant's point:

a single crossbowman, hitting on 5s before multiple shot.

Single shot: 2/3 =24/36 miss, 1/3 = 12/36 hit

multiple shots: (5/6)^2 = 25/36 miss, (1/6)^2 = 1/36 hit twice, the rest (10/36) hit once

So if you single shot, you will miss with every shot 24/36 of the time, and if you multishoot, you will miss with every shot 25/36 of the time. Therefore it is better to single shot unless you NEED to do 2 wounds.

This principle also comes into conflict with another principle when large numbers of rxbs are involved, the fact that the more dice you roll the more likely you are to get the average result. So when firing rxbs when you only expecxt to get 1 wound max, it is always better to single shoot (when the averages are the same), but when you expect to get more wounds than that you need to consider what is more important to acheive. Is it:
a) That you do at least 1 wound - In this case it is better to single shoot
b) That you do the average number of wounds - In this case it is better to multishoot
c) That you do above the average number of wounds - In this case it is better to single shoot
d) That you do more wounds than you have rxbelves - in this case (obviously) it is better to multishoot.

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I completely agree with Ant (Reynolds, I presume?).

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Wed Sep 29, 2010 12:00 pm
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Rending Star
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The differences are really academic in nature (even though correct).

The best rule of thumb is to not bother and always use multiple shots. :D

Bye
Thanee


Wed Sep 29, 2010 12:19 pm
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Shade

Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2010 4:04 pm
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Here are some percentages when needing 5's to single shoot and 6's to multishoot (where the average is the same). I ran some software simulating 20 models firing a million different times (so 20 single shots vs 40 multishots). Why? Cause I'm a geek and I couldn't help myself on this one. :)

Chances of 6 or 7 hits when firing with 20 models (where the average is 6.6666 hits for both single and multi):

Single: 36.5%
Multi: 32.9%

Chances of getting at least 6 hits:

Single: 70.3%
Multi: 67.6%

Chances of getting at least 7 hits:

Single: 52.1%
Multi: 50.1%

Chances of getting at least 10 hits:

Single: 9.1%
Multi: 11.7%

Chances of getting at least one hit:

Single: 99.9714%
Multi: 99.9332%

It's all about consistancy. Yes, they give the same average hits over time but if you want a higher chance of scoring the average on one single volley, then single shoot.

As far as needing at least one wound, there's virtually no difference in percentage; single is ever so slightly better at getting at least 1 hit but it's pretty darn small.

If you want a higher chance at scoring more hits (8 was where they about evened out and 9 is where multi started to take over) then go for multi.

I'd rather just multishoot just to save myself time from thinking about which is better since the differences are so small. Though, if you're trying to take out a small unit of say 5-6, then single shooting is your better bet by a small margin.


Wed Sep 29, 2010 12:55 pm
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Lord of the Dragon Caves
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Based on the math in the post above, my rule of thumb has always been to use multiple shots unless doing so would require a 6+ or worse to hit.

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Wed Sep 29, 2010 1:11 pm
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Dark Rider

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if you need 7's (single) and 8's (multishot) ALWAYS pick multishot

chance on 1 die hitting a 7 = 1 /12, chance on 1 die hitting a 8 = 1/18.


Wed Sep 29, 2010 4:30 pm
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Lord of the Dragon Caves
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If you need 7s and 8s, the better thing to do is find a different target ...

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Wed Sep 29, 2010 5:05 pm
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Calisson wrote:
For experts, there is a nuance...
The Virgin Forest wrote:
Absolute gibberish.
The last paragrpah is, as written, for experts (especially the academic ones, thanks Thanee ;) ).
For all others, I agree, it is absolute gibberish.
Ignore it till you become an expert. ;)

Thanks JL177 for the figures. :) Now we're all experts. :D


Wed Sep 29, 2010 7:56 pm
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Quote:
If you need 7s and 8s, the better thing to do is find a different target ...


I concur sir :)

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Wed Sep 29, 2010 8:21 pm
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Slave on the Altar

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Multishot because I'm a pessimist and you have a way better change of rolling the average. If you want math, it's the law of large numbers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
The only reason not to is if poisoned or hitting on 10's with multiple shots.


Mon Oct 04, 2010 10:25 pm
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Noble
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a.wagg wrote:
Multishot because I'm a pessimist and you have a way better change of rolling the average. If you want math, it's the law of large numbers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
The only reason not to is if poisoned or hitting on 10's with multiple shots.

So it's got reliability in its favor, but there's something more, there's a chance to get really lucky. If you get super lucky with 10 shots, you get 10 hits, but super-lucky with 20 shots and you get 20 hits, stuff like that. In addition, there's the psychological component, which I believe was mentioned earlier. Crossbowmen units aren't usually huge pointsinks, and the enemy might get a bit too distracted killing them because you throw an assload of dice every shooting phase.

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Mon Oct 04, 2010 11:33 pm
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Lord of the Dragon Caves
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a.wagg wrote:
Multishot because I'm a pessimist and you have a way better change of rolling the average. If you want math, it's the law of large numbers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
The only reason not to is if poisoned or hitting on 10's with multiple shots.


You have it wrong. The law of large numbers does not apply here. As others have noted, single shot at 5+ is more reliable than multishot at 6+. Although the average is the same in either case, the probability curve for single-shot at 5+ is more tightly grouped around that average.

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Tue Oct 05, 2010 3:00 am
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