Intersite battle, druchii turn 4

The golden arrow · Post by **The golden arrow** » Mon Jun 15, 2009 1:34 pm

Welcome to the intersite battle, where the most ruthless generals of druchii.net face up against the caring leaders of asrai.org. Everyone is allowed to contribute with their ideas and opinions and hopefully you can come up with the best plan to prevail in this battle.

This is a continuation from these threads:
Intersite battle, any interest?
Druchii turn one
Druchii turn two
Druchii turn three

Please read them for more information.

Here's the wood elf turn three. Enjoy....

The wardancers charge the harpies with deadly grace and the alter charge into the witch elves in a desperate attempt to stop these bloodied killing machines.

Here's the rest of the moves:

Magic:
None

Shooting:
Spellsinger shoot the dark riders but misses :eek: but the warhawks manage to take one of them down.
Seeing as the warhawks have found a target the glade guards fill the air with their deadly arrows and manage to take the rest of the riders down.

The spearmen don't like that at all and turns to run towards the hated archers (failed panic test). The unit came in disarray though and only stumbled forward four inches.

Combat:
The wardancers eager to see combat ripped the harpies apart easily not leaving a single one. The last remaining wardancer takes heart from this and at last manages to best the illusive beastmaster who killed so many of her fellow dancers. The wild riders are not as lucky and don't manage to survive the ravaging hydra.

The hydra didn't fancy it's odds in the fight however (passed monster reaction test though) and turned and ran only to be beset by a hundred small blades finding every weak point in it's body killing it instantly before it's skin got a chance to regenerate the damage. The cold one chariot got so scared seeing the big hydra get killed by the strange elf daemons that it turned and run away (seven inches).

The alter hears the great death roar, but all his consentration goes into fighting the witch elves. He mangaged to kill three of them with great swipes of his greatsword and the witch elves seeing that they could indeed be bested in combat turned and ran from the madman. They did not get far however before the elf was upon them killing them all including the pancy assasin disguised in his short skirt and bra.

End map:

Rally test:
Both the spears and chariot rally.

Well, that's it for this turn. You can't say you don't deserve the dice rolls.....

Lakissov · Post by **Lakissov** » Mon Jun 15, 2009 2:18 pm

Well, it didn't go very well for us. The first thing we should decide is how exactly we place the chariot and spears (facing to which sides).

I'll give the situation more thought in the evening.

Also a question: how come the BSB moved? He had just rallied in this turn (he had charged the witches, lost combat and ran away in previous Asrai turn, and so in this Asrai turn, having just rallied, he couldn't have moved anywhere, even if he has the Feigned Flight rule, like fast cavalry (and he couldn't shoot either, after rallying).

The golden arrow · Post by **The golden arrow** » Mon Jun 15, 2009 4:17 pm

I kind of moved the bsb that had just rallied so placed him back on the end map (still wrong in the moves map, but doesn't really matter).

Lakissov · Post by **Lakissov** » Mon Jun 15, 2009 6:04 pm

All right, first thoughts so far:
- warriors charge dryads, then sorceress flies out of them into the BG (two Steeds on 3PD ensure that we can do it)
- crossbowmen move to the edge of the hill (so if Alter charges them, they'll have higher ground), and shoot at the hawks

not sure about other things yet, so these are just ideas

The golden arrow · Post by **The golden arrow** » Mon Jun 15, 2009 6:25 pm

You do know the warriors just rallied so can't move at all right?

Lakissov · Post by **Lakissov** » Mon Jun 15, 2009 7:05 pm

Ah, damn, things tend to get forgotten

Much worse for us it is then...

Cal'mihe · Post by **Cal'mihe** » Mon Jun 15, 2009 7:26 pm

We do get a reform to aling them though.
We could rotate them so that they're facing our flank, in order to guard against the mass of wardancers and warhawks that just ran over the hydra, while moving the black guard sideways to link up with them and make a secluded area which can't be seen by the glade guard. (explanation follows)

This allows us to move some of our characters out into an area of temporary safety, provided we get rid of some of the threats on the left side of the board.

The harpies are all in range of the warhawks, so can charge them. I'm not sure if they stand a chance of doing something about them though (Lak ?)

The dreadlord should hop out of the black guard in order to be propelled into some juicy target. The treeman is dead, and he is one of the only choices we have for offensive action this turn.
If the crossbowmen fail to kill the altar, then we have an option of propelling our dreadlord into him with Steed of Shadows. This will leave him vulnurable in the next turn though, although we're likely to remove one of the faster threats to us.
An alternative target could be the dryads, but they are not in charge range, so are not a threat this turn (except to the dark riders).

We're very limited in what offensive action we can take, so I feel we should grab what we can in order to seize the initative. We could try castling ourselves, but that'll allow the wood elves to run rings around us and dictate the rest of the game (them too far away, us pincusions)

Edit: What are the chances that the dreadlord on his own can break the wardancers ? If shooting can kill the altar, then the dreadlord has a choice of targets, either dryads, wardancers, glade guard, BSB or warhawks.

Marauder mitch2 · Post by **Marauder mitch2** » Mon Jun 15, 2009 8:31 pm

I would get the lord in position to steed into the Alter Noble, then try a creeping death on the wardancers. I would move the Dark riders behind the small GG unit. If we kill there shooting offence they will have to commit and we have static and magic advantage on them then. Basic aim is kill the GG and get them to commit to our blocks.

Lakissov · Post by **Lakissov** » Tue Jun 16, 2009 11:57 pm

All right, I’ll start with some probabilities again:

1. The chance for harpies not to lose the combat against war hawks is around 50% (i.e. the chance to win ACR by 1 or better; the hawks likely have outnumber in the end of combat, so not losing the combat means beating hawks by 1 on ACR); not a good chance

2. Dreadlord alone versus dryads: chance not to lose: 97.5%, and chance to break the dryads 55.6%. Naturally, against the Glade Guard the chances are even better.

3. Dreadlord alone versus wardancers:
- ASF dance: chance to lose for DL is 18.2%
- +1A dance: chance to lose 15.4%
- 4+ ward dance: chance to lose 40.1%
So, one of the dances can actually screw the dreadlord up, if he charges alone

4. The chance to kill Alter with our crossbowmen (if all 9 shoot without moving, hitting on 5’s with single shot): 74.0%; I’d say, we should go for it.

5. The chance to reduce yellow GG to below US5 (so that they wouldn’t be able to take away ranks nor gain flank bonus) by shooting only with shades: 46.6% if shades don’t move and use double-shot (only three will be in range, it seems; if more are in range, then better chances). Chance to do the same if also DR move up and shoot at the GG: 85.6% (the DR would move so that all 5 can shoot, and they’d multi-shoot). As it is important to protect warriors from flank-charges, it is clear that we should join the forces of both the DR and the shades, shooting at the GG.

Now, about strategy:
I agree with Mitch that we need to eliminate the shooting threat mainly. Our combat units are OK against theirs.

Hence, I’d say, this turn we should catapult the dreadlord into the GG. In the diagram I’ve drawn, the front of the warriors unit, reformed, is marked with the yellow line. After the warriors have reformed, the dreadlord leaves the BG and joins the warriors, taking the position in their left corner (he just needs to touch any point of the unit to get into it, and when he does so, he is automatically placed in any place in the front rank - so he can do this). If we manage to Steed the dreadlord into the GG, then they won’t be able to S&S, as they are within 10” of the dreadlord. If they flee, then the dreadlord can declare an EitW charge at the dryads. The dryads marked with yellow dots will not be in LOS of the dreadlord, and so he will contact the right-most dryad. As the red line indicates, if he breaks the dryads, he will run into the BSB.

The crossbowmen won’t move – they’ll shoot at the Alter (single shot option). Shades won’t move either – either three or four of them will shoot the yellow GG (however many reach) – they’ll use double shot (hitting on 4’s). DR will move as much to the left as possible, positioned so that all have LOS to the yellow GG, and they’ll double-shoot the GG.

BG will move to cover the flank of the warriors (as shown by the black line), linking up with them so that it wouldn’t be possible for the dryads to charge the warriors without also charging the BG (BG aren’t march-blocked, so their march of 10” would be enough to move up this way). The Pit sorceress will keep within 12” of the dreadlord.

In the magic phase, there are to be three spells:
1. 2PD steed on the dreadlord with Pit sorc
2. 2PD steed on the dreadlord with Tome sorc
3. 2PD creeping death with Tome sorc

If first steed is not dispelled, then the Tome sorc first casts creeping death, and then Shades of death (on the warriors). If GG accept the charge, then the CD is on the dryads. If GG flee, then the CD is on the BSB (DL gets into combat with dryads, so they can’t be CD’d).

As for harpies, I am unsure as to what could be the most optimal use for them, and I’d like to get feedback regarding this.

Another thought is that if we do move the BG this way, then we might actually move the DR differently – away from the dryads on the right flank, because the flank of the warriors is already covered by BG, and so it’s not critical to reduce the yellow GG below US5.

So, what does everyone think?

Guardian112 · Post by **Guardian112** » Wed Jun 17, 2009 1:46 am

Remember to turn the COC around.
I'd move the DR up behind the yellow GG, because if them and the shades can kill the GG, it will allow the DR to flank charge the dryads should they charge the BGs flank. Also in that position the dryads won't be able to see the DR, and they would be putting additional pressure on the WE backfield.
As to the harpies I would either screen the BG and Warriors from the green GG, or send them out to take down the Spellsinger next turn which would give us a good return on the harpies and decrease the WE magic defense for the last turn.

Church · Post by **Church** » Wed Jun 17, 2009 8:07 am

The chance for harpies not to lose the combat against war hawks is around 50% (i.e. the chance to win ACR by 1 or better; the hawks likely have outnumber in the end of combat, so not losing the combat means beating hawks by 1 on ACR); not a good chance

Indeed, but i would do it anyway. Your plan didnt arange something for the hawks, that leaves to much options for the woodies. Either charging our crossbows or, in case the steed fails combo-charge the warriors with the dryads . Both events could proof very nasty for us.
Besides, you can read statistics the other way round: they have a good chance to hold them long enough for a chariot rush.

The chance to kill Alter with our crossbowmen (if all 9 shoot without moving, hitting on 5’s with single shot): 74.0%; I’d say, we should go for it.

Wasting so much shots on a one wound left single model gives me a real headache. The alter isnt that big problem anymore, we have lots of more reasonable targets for them. Wardancers for example.

BG will move to cover the flank of the warriors (as shown by the black line), linking up with them so that it wouldn’t be possible for the dryads to charge the warriors without also charging the BG...

We can achive the same result by moving the guard a couple of inches forward. That gives us the advantage of pointing them on the dryads. Pointing them nowhere gives the woodies another chance to ignore them.

The golden arrow · Post by **The golden arrow** » Wed Jun 17, 2009 4:46 pm

4. The chance to kill Alter with our crossbowmen (if all 9 shoot without moving, hitting on 5’s with single shot): 74.0%; I’d say, we should go for it.

As the alter has briarsheath you get -1 to hit and thus hit him on 6+.

Cal'mihe · Post by **Cal'mihe** » Wed Jun 17, 2009 4:54 pm

How would the warriors fare if they get combo charged by the dryads, warhawks and altar noble ? (noble and warhawks in the flank)

Church · Post by **Church** » Wed Jun 17, 2009 9:03 pm

Well, they will perish. That's almost shure

Voiddisciple · Post by **Voiddisciple** » Wed Jun 17, 2009 9:54 pm

Great reminder, GA.
I like Lakkisov's strategy of launching the dreadlord at the archers and/or dryads. Shooting the alter noble is probably not going to be a feasible option, leaving Creeping Death as the preferred weapon to wipe him out. That being said, there are a lot of better options to Creep, particularly the Wardancers. Dark Riders could attempt to move behind the glade guard and shoot at the BSB.
I think the crossbowmens' best option is to wheel towards the warhawks and attempt a march move to cover the spearmen's flank. Between moving, multiple shots and shooting skirmishers at long range they're not going to get a whole lot of shots off.

Cal'mihe · Post by **Cal'mihe** » Wed Jun 17, 2009 10:33 pm

What about the harpies as a screen for the flank of the warriors ? Can we set them up in such a way that if charged by the warhawks, then the warhawks will be taken away from the warriors, and if charged by some other enemies (altar) then they can hold in place to block the movement of the warhawks ?
It'll cost us the harpies for sure of course.

Also, if the dreadlord is thrown against the glade guard, and subsequently overruns into the BSB, will he not overrun off the table after that, effectively costing us the use of him in the final phase of the game ?

Edit: What about if the harpies have the dreadlord within command range, then they ought to have a vastly improved chance of holding, even if losing a fight against the warhawks. I think the dreadlord can be arranged so that an overrun move from steeding him into the altar will take him into the wardancers, while allowing the harpies to benefit from his leadership. Although the harpies are likely to get wiped subsequently, we'd be denying the use of the warhawks for a turn.

Thanatoz · Post by **Thanatoz** » Wed Jun 17, 2009 10:38 pm

Problem with launching the dreadlord against the dryads is, he has to win the second round. With only a 55% chance of breaking, next turn might see him turn tail and run if he doesn't win. While he still has decent odds of killing (3+ and 2+) 3, GA's rolling is... spectacular to say the least

Still, tossing him in the right most dryads will clean up that flank nicely, especially if all our shooting targets the glade guards (crossbowmen the left squad, dark riders and shades the already depleted squad on the right). Like MM2 said, we need to get rid of their shooting...

Lakissov · Post by **Lakissov** » Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:49 pm

Hm, I remembered about the Briarsheath, but forgot to add the penalty for shooting at a skirmisher. Hitting on 6s, the chance to kill the Alter off is only 47.7%, which is not good enough by far.

Hence, if we go with the plan I initially proposed, then the warriors will be in danger. However, another possibility is to Steed the Dreadlord directly from the Black Guard. In this case he won’t have an overrun into the BSB, though, so it’s probably best to catapult him into the dryads, and hope to break them – if we do, then we overrun into the green GG, and if we don’t, then still the dryads aren’t able to charge the warriors.

The warriors with the sorceress, meanwhile, could turn to face the Alter and the warhawks. If they are attacked from the front by both, then the chance that warriors lose is very small (there will only be three warhawks in contact; the champion will challenge; warriors will use spears against hawks; when making calculations disregarding the fact that there is a sorceress in the unit, I calculated that the chance of the warriors to lose this combat would be 3.2%).

Another alternative, if we feel like risking a bit to get the initiative back, would be to get the dreadlord out of the Black Guard before Steeding him – that would allow moving the Black Guard straight into the face of the dryads on the right. In this case, of course, we should cast the Steed on three dice twice instead of on two, to minimize the risk that the Dreadlord just stays sitting in the open. The first Steed would be cast by the Pit sorceress, and if it’s let through, then the second sorceress casts Creeping Death at the Alter on three dice.

As for the crossbowmen – they probably shouldn’t waste their shooting at the Alter – instead they might shoot at the Warhawks if we don’t move the BG towards the dryads, and at the yellow GG if we do (to make sure that our warriors aren’t flank-charged by a US5 unit).

Harpies can be used to screen our crossbowmen from a potential charge by warhawks, in such a way that the warhawks would get an EitW on warriors if they charge harpies. DR should of course move away in this scenario – they don’t need to be charged by dryads.

The diagram to go with the explanation:

So, do we feel like risking a bit? That might mean a nasty surprise for the Asrai…

---
Edited:

Additional information: the chance that the dreadlord loses in 2nd round of combat is 28.9% (this is conditional upon the amount of wounds he had made in round 1 - if he got his AS to 1+, then this chance is 23.5%, and if it stayed at 4+, then 64.8%)

Church · Post by **Church** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 7:41 am

I'm confident with that.
Only note: moving the Guard to the indicatet position would allow the Dryads to bypass them creating a threat for the Warriors back in the last turn. Moving a couple of inches in that direktion is enough...

Slortor · Post by **Slortor** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 10:39 am

personally I'd probably move the DR forward so that the rock protects them from the right hand dryads - if we're gonna send the DL into the left dryads then Id say the DR are a risk worth taking - especially as they'd destroy the yellow GG if they flee and have options on both the other GG and the BSB...

just my two cents

Thanatoz · Post by **Thanatoz** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 11:49 am

Slortor wrote:personally I'd probably move the DR forward so that the rock protects them from the right hand dryads - if we're gonna send the DL into the left dryads then Id say the DR are a risk worth taking - especially as they'd destroy the yellow GG if they flee and have options on both the other GG and the BSB...

just my two cents

Agreed. By using our Dark Riders to threaten their BSB and GG, they will have to be careful there. I'm not sure about moving our black guard to confront their dryads, as they will only run circles around us. Perhaps we should, after letting the dreadlord out, turn them towards the nasty wardancer/warhawk flank, positioning our dark riders so that they can intercept the dryads (if we get rid of the GG) should they move up towards our rear?

Lakissov · Post by **Lakissov** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 11:57 am

Actually, the dryads won't be able to escape the BG, if the BG move within 5" of them. The dryads will be march-blocked by the BG and so won't be able to move away far enough (they also won't be able to move away to a flank, because they are currently rather extended). And when the BG charge, they won't have the option of fleeing.

As for the dark riders - I would myself prefer to move them behind the rock, but they are march-blocked by the dryads, and so don't have enough movement allowance to go there - far enough for preventing the dryads from charging them

Cal'mihe · Post by **Cal'mihe** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 6:52 pm

I like that plan lots more, guards against various attacks and gives us a chance at a retaliation in the next turn.

It looks to me and my ruler like the dark riders can be positioned so that at least some of them can shoot at the yellow GG through the break between the rock and the dryads.

Don't forget to rotate the chariot.
Also, I assume that you've checked the distance, but careful that we do not offer a charge to the wardancers on the harpies. Even if its just the lone yellow wardancer.

I'm not sure if we should fear a flank charge by the yellow GG into the BG. Sure they'd subtract 1 SCR and gain 1 themselves, but risk giving away up to 4 ACR due to the asf banner on the BG (plus the BGs general nastiness)

Lakissov · Post by **Lakissov** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 6:58 pm

Actually the lone wardancer can indeed charge the harpies - but the harpies are positioned there simply in such a way as to block LOS from the hawks to the crossbows, and so to prevent the crossbows from being charged by the hawks.

As for the yellow GG, I don't fear that they would flank-charge the BG - it's much worse if they charge the warriors (who would then lose the rank bouns). This is exactly the reason why we should reduce them below US5.

Xerasi · Post by **Xerasi** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 7:08 pm

I like the last idea but a small alteration I'd like to see is DR's move up to the rock, placing them with dryads in the flank but the flank towards the rock. It shouldn't be too hard placing them so dryads cannot charge their flank because of the rock preventing a placement of them (if not worst case would be 1 dryad in contact).

I see no reason to move rxbs, as all can shoot currently.

I've made an image, but for some reason I'm not allowed to upload it